Suppliers can develop additional sales channels to increase direct customer access. Suppliers to explore alternative sales, branding, and pricing strategies. ![]() The shifts will be bidirectional for each stakeholder group, and the new distribution will depend on how the respective stakeholders manage to position themselves in the new aftermarket ecosystem. Based on the estimated impact of trends such as EVs, connected cars, and e-commerce, more than €100 billion-or 30 to 40 percent of aftermarket profits-could be subject to redistribution along the value chain in 2030. In consequence, profit pools might shift significantly between whole-value-chain steps (Exhibit 2). Last, there will be a shift from private to business needs due to the increased share of professional fleet operators in the aftermarket. Furthermore, customers will increasingly rely on automated systems and recommendations. New touchpoints will be created, giving new entrants access to end customers and threatening to reduce end-customer access for other players. The new value-chain design will translate into higher price transparency for the customer across the entire value chain. In the next years, ten trends-in three broad categories-will fundamentally change the industry (Exhibit 1). ![]() The automotive aftermarket has a current business value of about €800.0 billion and is expected to grow 3 percent annually to around €1.2 trillion by 2030. In discussing the situation-the trends and the pragmatic action recommendations-we rely on our various project experiences, analyses, industry expertise, and insights derived from interviews with more than 40 experts and executives in the automotive aftermarket. This article, based on our new report Ready for inspection: The automotive aftermarket in 2030, aims to illuminate the changes and disruptive trends that the automotive aftermarket is going to face in the coming years and provide answers to some of the key questions that these trends pose to all players: Which trends will affect the automotive aftermarket, and how will the aftermarket value chain be disrupted? How will customer involvement and the customer journey change? How will profit pools shift along the value chain? What are the initial steps aftermarket players should take to be prepared? But as much as experts agree that significant changes are ahead, a big picture of all trends and ideas to face them still needs to be developed. Learning from past disruptions in other industries, we know that not having the requisite strategies to cope with these disruptions can lead to decline not just for individual, established corporations but also for whole subindustries. The advent of new technologies and the market shifts that accompany them are compelling aftermarket players to assess their position and be strategic about maintaining positions of strength in a fast-changing environment. In emerging markets, whole new areas of consumer needs will arise and pressure aftermarket companies to respond. In the mature markets of Europe and North America, the pace of consolidation will accelerate, and competition will arise from unexpected players-for instance, digital natives pursuing opportunities to move into the automotive aftermarket space. Value creation and business models in the automotive aftermarket will also be fundamentally reshaped by these changes. ![]() These include changing customer expectations, accelerated adoption of new technologies, and shifts in competitive power. Dramatic changes are ahead for the automotive aftermarket.
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